How TeePublic Used Incrementality Testing to Replace ROAS Debates with Causal Truth
TeePublic relied heavily on paid media across Meta and Google Performance Max, but platform ROAS and internal reporting told very different stories. Marketing and Finance couldn't agree on what was actually working, making budget decisions contentious and risky.
TeePublic relied heavily on paid media across Meta and Google Performance Max, but platform ROAS and internal reporting told very different stories. Marketing and Finance couldn't agree on what was actually working, making budget decisions contentious and risky.
Our Approach
M-Squared rebuilt TeePublic's incrementality playbook to isolate true causal impact:
- Defined separate P&Ls for new and returning customers to reflect real unit economics
- Ran controlled incrementality tests across Meta and Google Performance Max
- Used holdout results to distinguish demand creation from demand capture
- Translated lift results into actionable investment guidance, not just analysis
The Results
- Google Performance Max showed strong incremental lift and defensible contribution
- Meta drove real lift, but was operating past peak efficiency, informing smarter reallocation
- CTV performance claims collapsed under testing, preventing unprofitable scale
- Marketing and Finance aligned on a shared, evidence-based view of performance
Instead of arguing over which ROAS to trust, TeePublic gained a clear, causal foundation for optimizing spend, scaling what worked, and cutting what didn't.
